层次分析在业主预测风险中的应用

在工程建设中,业主面临的索赔主要来自承包商,造成索赔的原因有很多种。本文分析了各种可能导致索赔发生的风险因素并应用层次分析法加以量化,然后根据量化的结果对各因素进行风险大小排序;根据排序结果找出主要的风险因素,进而达到对索赔风险进行预测和力求加大主动控制的目的。     

Costs and effectiveness of fingolimod versus alemtuzumab in the treatment of highly active relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis in the UK: re-treatment,discount, and disutility

Objective: Patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) treated with disease modifying therapies (DMTs) who continue to experience disease activity may be considered for escalation therapies such as fingolimod, or may be considered for alemtuzumab. Previous economic modeling used Markov models; applying one alternative technique, discrete event simulation (DES) modeling, allows re-treatment and long-term adverse events (AEs) to be included in the analysis.

Methods: A DES was adapted to model relapse-triggered re-treatment with alemtuzumab and the effect of including ongoing quality-adjusted life year (QALY) decrements for AEs that extend beyond previous 1-year Markov cycles. As the price to the NHS of fingolimod in the UK is unknown, due to a confidential patient access scheme (PAS), a variety of possible discounts were tested. The interaction of re-treatment assumptions for alemtuzumab with the possible discounts for fingolimod was tested to determine which DMT resulted in lower lifetime costs. The lifetime QALY results were derived from modeled treatment effect and short- and long-term AEs.

Results: Most permutations of fingolimod PAS discount and alemtuzumab re-treatment rate resulted in fingolimod being less costly than alemtuzumab. As the percentage of patients who are re-treated with alemtuzumab due to experiencing a relapse approaches 100% of those who relapse whilst on treatment, the discount required for fingolimod to be less costly drops below 5%. Consideration of treatment effect alone found alemtuzumab generated 0.2 more QALYs/patient; the inclusion of AEs up to a duration of 1 year reduced this advantage to only 0.14 QALYs/patient. Modeling AEs with a lifetime QALY decrement found that both DMTs generated very similar QALYs with the difference only 0.04 QALYs/patient.

Conclusions: When the model captured alemtuzumab re-treatment and long-term AE decrements, it was found that fingolimod is cost-effective compared to alemtuzumab, assuming application of only a modest level of confidential PAS discount.     

汽车电子安全技术的现状及其发展策略

介绍了当代汽车电子安全技术的发展现状,从主动与被动安全两方面技术分别探讨,包括电子制动力分配装置、驱动防滑系统、电子稳定装置、自适应巡航控制装置、和安全气囊防护系统、自动防抱死刹车系统、电子刹车辅助系统、事故自动报警系统、驾驶纪录系统等。同时对未来的汽车电子安全技术的发展趋势做了简要介绍。     

飞行器目标监控系统抗干扰技术研究

飞行器目标监控系统是飞行器实现可靠飞行的重要技术保障。研究了飞行器目标监控 系统的工作机理,分析了监控系统抗干扰性能,提出了具有高抗干扰容限的伪码组合扩频技 术。仿真实验结果表明,采用伪码组合扩频技术可提高通信系统的抗干扰能力。     

基于运动干扰机的合成孔径雷达二维移频压制干扰

为了给移动或分布式目标提供有效的保护,提出了一种基于运动干扰机的SAR二维移 频压制干扰方法。在波束照射范围内,运动干扰机在待保护目标附近截获SAR发射信号,并 根据目标在距离向的范围与位置对其调制一个线性调频信号后转发。根据Range-Doppler算 法,推导了距离向失配干扰信号脉冲压缩输出的主瓣位置、幅度以及宽度;分析了由于 干扰机的运动导致的方位向调制信号,给出了干扰机起始位置、运动速度与方位向脉冲压缩 输出主瓣位置、幅度以及主瓣展宽量的关系。理论研究表明,干扰信号能够在SAR图像中形 成面状压制区,可以实现对移动或分布式目标的有效保护。仿真实验验证了该方法的有效性。     

双活性基团活性染料的耐碱性研究

为考察均三嗪和乙烯砜的双活性基团活性染料的耐碱性,以活性黄176为例,采用反相离子对高效液相色谱法,测定了一系列活性黄176的浓度随时间、温度、pH值等变化的实验数据,得出了活性黄176在不同条件下的水解关系曲线,并采用准一级反应动力学模型拟合实验数据．结果表明：在酸性介质（pH4．47）中,双活性基团染料活性黄176会水解,但温度升高时变化规律不明显;在中性介质（pH8．07）中,温度越高染料水解速度越快．并且两者在温度一定时染料水解反应基本服从准一级反应（R2〉0．982）．在碱性介质（pH10．3）中,温度升高活性黄176水解十分剧烈,并几乎严格按照准一级反应进行（R2〉0．992）．     

‘It Doesn't Matter How Big or Small You Are…There's a Position For You’: Body Image Among Female Tackle Football Players

The purpose of this study was explore the body image experiences of women who play tackle football. Data included semi-structured interviews with 15 players on a women's tackle football team in Western Canada. Data were analyzed thematically and objectification theory was used to interpret the findings. Themes that emerged included: a) improved body image through physical change, appreciation of function over appearance and shifting ideals of beauty; b) importance of a social atmosphere that celebrated diverse bodies; and c) negotiation of body image on and off the field. Research has documented a connection between body image and physically active leisure, but much about the nature of the relationship is still unclear. The findings of this study provide insight into elements of physically active leisure (e.g., social atmosphere or nature of the activity) which can be used to promote positive body image, health, and wellness in leisure settings.     

Factors Influencing the Physically Active Leisure of Children and Youth: A Qualitative Study

A phenomenological framework guided data collection and analysis of the prevalent influences on attitudes and behaviors of elementary, junior, and secondary school students towards their physically active leisure. Twenty-two students participated in individual in-depth interviews. Parental influence and outdoor play effected choice and level of physically active leisure for elementary students. Opportunities for organized and non-structured physically active leisure and friends were significant for junior students. Academic responsibilities and organized physically active leisure were influential for secondary students. Common threads were parental influence and the belief that the students were too old to start new activities. These findings highlight the importance of providing opportunities in safe environments for children and youth to participate in a variety of structured and non-structured forms of physically active leisure.     

直接序列扩频系统多音扫频干扰性能分析

为有效干扰直接扩频通信系统,通过分析扫频信号及多音信号在干扰直扩通信系统时 存在的优缺点,提出了一种针对直扩通信系统的多音扫频干扰技术。该方法将直扩通信系统 的频谱划分为若干个子频谱,针对每个子频谱采用扫频信号进行干扰。理论分析和仿真验证 表明,该方法可以明显改善扫频干扰直扩通信系统时扫频时间过长以及多音干扰依赖音调位 置的缺点,具有良好的干扰效果。     

Co-Creation Experiences: Attention and Memorability

This study examines the on-site co-creation experience from a tourist perspective. A review of the literature and in-depth interviews with tourists who participated in a ‘swimming with dolphins’ experience are used to explore the importance of co-creation in enhancing attention and the memorability of the experience. Findings suggest that the co-creation experience influences memorability by focusing the tourist’s attention. This study contributes to the conceptualization of co-creation in the field of tourism by substantiating the usefulness of a psychologically based approach to experience design.